The Fiscal Council has produced a study on how the Estonian budget deficit reacts to the economic cycle. A key finding is that official estimates may have been overestimating how sensitive the fiscal position of the Estonian general government is to changes in the output gap.

The study includes the underlying data for the calculations and a ready-made calculator that lets users choose several important assumptions for the estimation of the budgetary sensitivity, so they can see how those assumptions might change the final results of the analysis.

How sensitive is Estonia's budget deficit to the economic cycle? An analysis of fiscal elasticities
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Calculator

The study was written by Liina Rebane, who is an economist in the secretariat of the Fiscal Council.