At the request of the Ministry of Finance, the Fiscal Council has drawn up an independent assessment of the macroeconomic impact analysis for the draft Recovery and Resilience Plan, following the call from the European Commission for the independent fiscal institutions and productivity boards of member states to be involved in preparing the recovery plans.

In conclusion the Fiscal Council finds that the macroeconomic impact analysis in the Estonian draft recovery plan is compiled using an appropriate methodology and the results of the model-based impact analysis are interpreted adequately given the assumptions chosen. The Fiscal Council considers it possible though that some of the assumptions in the analysis may prove inaccurate, especially if the Estonian economy should recover faster than expected from the pandemic. The concerns of the Fiscal Council are then mainly connected to the economic forecast risks, not to the technical quality of the impact analysis.

The Fiscal Council's opinion and a more thorough explanatory report can be found here.

Additional information:
Raul Eamets
Chairman of Fiscal Council
Tel: +372 514 0082
Email: raul.eamets@ut.ee